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Insights

Asset Allocation update – June 2025

Financial markets continue to display confidence that the trade war remains on a de-escalating path, even as the deadline for ‘trade deals’ to be agreed with the US moves into focus.

There remains no guarantee of certainty, however, given the legal challenges against the Trump Administration’s (mis)use of legislation citing a national emergency and national security concerns to justify tariffs. The legal process will stretch into late July and beyond, at best, so the shadow of tariff uncertainty will continue to loom over sentiment. However, the consensus view remains that we have seen the worst of the tariff threats and levels are likely to move towards the 10% baseline.

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US debt has reached $40 trillion, up by about a third in less than five years. The Treasury has tried to contain long-end pressure, but investors remain sceptical.
The US 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2001. Although the level is not extreme historically, the speed of the rise is.
The US July jobs report had plenty to say – little of it good. The economy shed 23,000 jobs versus consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain. Rates markets reacted swiftly, trimming expectations for future rate rises.
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Important information:

For professional investors only (not to be used with/ passed on to any third party). For marketing purposes.

 

This document contains information by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA). CMIA is an affiliate of Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

 

CMIA is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

The materials relating to the CMIA included in this document have been approved and provided by CMIA.

 

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other CMIA associates or affiliates.

 

Past Performance does not predict future returns, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Your capital is at risk. Since economic and market conditions change frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described here will continue or that any forecasts are accurate.

 

This material should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, investment/legal/tax or accounting advice or an investment recommendation. The mention of any specific shares or bonds should not be taken as a recommendation to deal.

 

This communication is valid at the date of publication and may be subject to change without notice. Information from external sources is considered reliable but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).  The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation.  It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

In the UK: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

 

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies

Related Insights

27 July 2026

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Market Perspectives: Tipping point?

The coming week may turn out to be a tipping point for markets over the summer, as investors assess key developments in monetary policy, corporate earnings and geopolitics.
24 July 2026

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Macro Pulse: K(OSPI)-Pop: What’s going on with Korean equities?

The week began with optimism, and some sharp falls in the oil price, as a result of a pause in attacks between the US and Iran.
22 July 2026

Asset Allocation update - Q3 2026

Hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East are being challenged by recent events. We have once again seen the ‘closure’ of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and a blockade of Iranian shipping reinstated by the US.
25 August 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – Take it to the limit (one more time)

US debt has reached $40 trillion, up by about a third in less than five years. The Treasury has tried to contain long-end pressure, but investors remain sceptical.
18 August 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – If I could turn back time

The US 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2001. Although the level is not extreme historically, the speed of the rise is.
18 August 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – A little less conversation

The US July jobs report had plenty to say – little of it good. The economy shed 23,000 jobs versus consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain. Rates markets reacted swiftly, trimming expectations for future rate rises.

Important information:

For professional investors only (not to be used with/ passed on to any third party). For marketing purposes.

 

This document contains information by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA). CMIA is an affiliate of Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

 

CMIA is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

The materials relating to the CMIA included in this document have been approved and provided by CMIA.

 

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other CMIA associates or affiliates.

 

Past Performance does not predict future returns, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Your capital is at risk. Since economic and market conditions change frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described here will continue or that any forecasts are accurate.

 

This material should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, investment/legal/tax or accounting advice or an investment recommendation. The mention of any specific shares or bonds should not be taken as a recommendation to deal.

 

This communication is valid at the date of publication and may be subject to change without notice. Information from external sources is considered reliable but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).  The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation.  It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

In the UK: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

 

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies

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