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The global economy has proved more resilient than many expected, but the investment landscape of 2027 looks materially different from a year ago – shaped by conflict in the Middle East, a reversal in interest rate expectations, and an AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) boom of unprecedented scale.

China's bond market appears remarkably strong, but the real story lies under the surface.

Central banks are back in focus as investors enter a busy run of September policy meetings. The European Central Bank meets this week, followed by the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next week.

If this sounds like a broken record that is because it is – the Strait of Hormuz has dominated global headlines since the end of February with no resolution in sight, albeit with a brief fillip for markets during the Memorandum of Understanding in mid-June until that fragile ceasefire failed to hold.

US debt has reached $40 trillion, up by about a third in less than five years. The Treasury has tried to contain long-end pressure, but investors remain sceptical.

The US July jobs report had plenty to say – little of it good. The economy shed 23,000 jobs versus consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain. Rates markets reacted swiftly, trimming expectations for future rate rises.