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Bond markets are moving to a beat that equity markets have yet to hear. The MOVE Index has surged while the VIX remains near its lows – a divergence that has historically preceded broader risk repricing.

Government bond yields are rising again – but this is not simply a repeat of 2022. We consider what fiscal pressures, inflation uncertainty and higher borrowing costs could mean for bonds, equities and portfolio positioning.

Artificial intelligence has moved from a narrow technology theme to a broad investment, productivity and financing cycle that will impact almost every aspect of financial markets.

Oil prices and bond yields are once again moving in step, as inflation concerns keep both markets firmly in focus.

Four factors are likely to have an important bearing on financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2026: US politics, fiscal policy in the UK and France, developments involving Iran, and the corporate earnings outlook.

Disruption fears look overdone – trusted data, regulation and embedded workflows should continue to support resilient information services credits.

The spread between French and German government debt has once again breached 100bps, reflecting a confluence of French fiscal and political pressures.

After a series of policy meetings across the major central banks, the direction of travel for interest rates remains finely balanced.

AI hyperscalers are reshaping the IG credit market, creating attractive dislocations in fundamentally strong issuers – and an attractive entry point.