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Economies and financial markets remain resilient despite heightened inflation risks. These are shaping central bank policy and interest-rate expectations, pushing bond yields to levels not seen since before the global financial crisis.

Explore Pyrford's Q3 2026 investment outlook covering bond yields, equity valuations, corporate profits and market risks.

Inflation continues to influence government finances, with UK real yields nearing 2%, their highest level since 2008, and US real yields approaching 3%.

Oil markets have received some comparatively encouraging signals from the Middle East, but the improvement in physical supply has yet to translate into a decisive fall in prices.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is driving one of the largest infrastructure investment cycles in decades. But converting billions of dollars of planned spending into operating data centres will depend on more than access to electricity.

Bond markets are moving to a beat that equity markets have yet to hear. The MOVE Index has surged while the VIX remains near its lows – a divergence that has historically preceded broader risk repricing.