en-GB

gb_intm_classes

featured_gb_intm

intm

Intermediary

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients).

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Anthony Willis

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Key Takeaways

A proposed US-Iran memorandum of understanding has reduced near-term geopolitical risk, but does not yet represent a comprehensive settlement.
The critical macro variable is the pace at which shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can normalise and ease pressure on global energy supply.
A sustained reversal in oil and gas prices would soften the inflation impulse and lower the probability of additional policy tightening.
Risk assets have responded positively, but residual uncertainty argues for caution: implementation risk, supply-chain disruption and geopolitical risk premia remain material.

Transcript

Reports of a potential US-Iran agreement mark a material shift in the Middle East risk backdrop. The deal is currently framed as a memorandum of understanding rather than a comprehensive settlement. That distinction matters: the terms remain unclear and the underlying sources of tension – including Iran’s nuclear programme, enriched uranium stockpiles, missile capabilities and support for regional proxies – remain unresolved.

Its immediate relevance is therefore less about a definitive end to geopolitical risk and more about whether it can reduce the conflict’s most economically disruptive channel: constraints on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is the principal market transmission channel given its role in global oil and gas trade. Restrictions on shipping have amplified energy-price volatility, worsened inflation expectations and contributed to a repricing of interest-rate risk.

Reopening is unlikely to be instantaneous. Shipping channels may require clearance, while security protocols, insurance premia and operator risk appetite will shape the pace of recovery. The distinction between formal reopening and effective normalisation remains central to the market outlook.

If energy flows normalise, the macro implications could be significant. A sustained fall in oil and gas prices would reduce headline inflation pressure, temper second-round effects and support a less restrictive policy path.

Central banks are already balancing sticky inflation against slowing growth momentum. A credible easing in energy prices would reduce the risk of further tightening and could re-anchor expectations around a more benign policy path. Any renewed disruption would likely restore upward pressure on inflation, rates and risk premia.

The initial market response has been constructive, reflecting lower energy-price risk, reduced inflation tail risk and a potentially less hawkish policy trajectory. These dynamics are supportive for equities and credit, particularly if investors can refocus on resilient growth and still-positive corporate earnings expectations.

However, the durability of any repricing will depend on implementation. The agreement remains incomplete, the operational reopening of the Strait will take time, and escalation risk has not been eliminated. The market move should therefore be treated as a relief rally until there is clearer evidence of sustained energy-flow normalisation and lower geopolitical risk premia.

The proposed agreement is potentially meaningful because it targets the conflict’s primary macro transmission mechanism: energy supply disruption. If implemented credibly, it could lower inflation risk, reduce the probability of additional policy tightening and support a more constructive backdrop for risk assets.

This is not a full reset. Energy-security risk has been repriced, supply-chain vulnerability has been exposed and geopolitical risk premia are unlikely to disappear quickly. Portfolio positioning should distinguish between near-term relief and durable improvement in fundamentals. The former is already evident; the latter requires evidence that the agreement can survive implementation and restore reliable energy flows.

15 June 2026

2026年 June 15日

Key topics

Subscribe to insights

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Latest articles

15 Jun 2026

2026年 June 15日

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Reports of a potential US-Iran agreement mark a material shift in the Middle East risk backdrop.

8 Jun 2026

2026年 June 08日

Market Perspectives: Goldilocks no more?

After a long run higher, US equities have been reminded that strong fundamentals do not eliminate volatility.

1 Jun 2026

2026年 June 01日

Market Perspectives: Falling oil, rising optimism

Investor sentiment has improved as markets assess the possibility of further de-escalation between the US and Iran – whether through a broader agreement or an extension of the ceasefire.

Key topics

Risk Disclaimer

The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up as a result of market or currency movements and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Views and opinions expressed by individual authors do not necessarily represent those of Columbia Threadneedle.

Important information

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

For professional investors only.

This financial promotion is issued for marketing and information purposes only by Columbia Threadneedle Investments in the UK.

The Fund is a sub fund of Columbia Threadneedle (UK) ICVC III, an open ended investment company (OEIC), registered in the UK and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

English language copies of the Fund’s Prospectus, summarised investor rights, English language copies of the key investor information document (KIID) can be obtained from Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AG, email: [email protected] or electronically at www.columbiathreadneedle.com. Please read the Prospectus before taking any investment decision.

The information provided in the marketing material does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in the Funds. The manager has the right to terminate the arrangements made for marketing.

Financial promotions are issued for marketing and information purposes; in the United Kingdom by Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in the EEA by Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., which is regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM); in Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

*Mandatory fields

Something went wrong, please try again

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Visit preference centre

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

Visit preference centre

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Key Takeaways

Subscribe to insights

Latest articles

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Market Perspectives: Goldilocks no more?

Market Perspectives: Falling oil, rising optimism

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Explore our CT Universal MAP ranges

Portfolio insights

Resources and support

Risk Disclaimer

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Key Takeaways

Subscribe to insights

Latest articles

Market Perspectives: The ceasefire and its consequences

Market Perspectives: Goldilocks no more?

Market Perspectives: Falling oil, rising optimism

Sign up to receive insights, information and reporting

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre​ to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Explore our CT Universal MAP ranges

Portfolio insights

Resources and support

Risk Disclaimer

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre​ to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.