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Market Perspectives: Falling oil, rising optimism

Anthony Willis
Anthony Willis
Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Key Takeaways

  • Near-term geopolitical risk has moderated – a broader agreement or extension of the ceasefire seems likely.
  • Oil markets are pricing in reduced supply disruption, but oil futures suggest some geopolitical risk premium remains embedded.
  • Lower oil prices support the macro backdrop with concerns around inflation and growth easing.
  • Equities remain supported by resilient fundamentals and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.
  • The outlook has improved, but risks remain.
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