au
AU
Australia
en-AU
au_inst_classes
inst
Institutional
en
en
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients).
City scene with people on escalator

Insights

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – The long and winding road

Europe's biggest economies are slowly increasing defence spending, but a three-speed approach is emerging. Elsewhere, core markets bear steepened.

Macro/government bonds

Core fixed income markets bear steepened last week. The US two-year yield rose by 4bps, while the US 30-year yield increased by 12bps.

At the front end, the key driver of higher yields was an upside surprise in the JOLTS labour market survey, which increased market expectations of tighter monetary policy. Beth Hammack, senior US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker and Cleveland Fed President, reinforced the hawkish tone, noting that she had not yet seen evidence that current monetary policy was restraining the economy. A weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls print on Thursday partially reversed the rise in US front-end yields. Ongoing concerns about the US fiscal outlook continued to push long-end yields higher.

Iran reiterated its determination to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of higher energy and shipping costs.

In the UK, the 30-year yield rose by 7bps. While US Treasury price action partly explained the rise in long-end gilt yields, domestic political risk was another driver. Gilt investors are looking for greater clarity on the identity of the incoming chancellor and the implications for fiscal policy.

German 30-year yields rose by 10bps. The long end of the eurozone debt market remains under pressure from unfavourable fiscal dynamics. Germany plans to increase net borrowing to €118 billion in 2027. This is 7% more than projected in April and reflects weaker-than-expected tax revenues.

Japan was the weakest long-end market, with the 30-year yield rising 23bps. The sell-off mirrored yen weakness, as the USD/JPY exchange rate moved above 162, reigniting concerns that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may be moving too cautiously in normalising monetary policy.

Portfolio activity: We added to front-end duration, as we believe too much inflation risk premium is priced into valuations.

Interested in learning more?

Download the latest edition of ‘In Credit’ for the usual top-to-bottom lowdown including Markets a glance, Chart of the week, and credit sector breakdowns including investment grade, high yield and emerging markets.

Key topics

Subscribe to insights

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Latest articles

Europe's biggest economies are slowly increasing defence spending, but a three-speed approach is emerging. Elsewhere, core markets bear steepened.
Like knockout football, today’s markets reward preparation and balance. With less margin for error, diversified portfolios help investors compete.
After an intense first half, financial markets appear to be entering a more measured phase.
Key topics
Related topics

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Source for all data and information is Bloomberg as at 6.7.2026, unless otherwise stated. For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © 2026 Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

Related Insights

2 July 2026

Guillaume Langellier

Senior Credit Research Analyst

Should investment grade prime office landlords worry about AI?

AI is reinforcing prime office demand in the short term, but the bigger question is whether productivity gains will ultimately limit hiring and space needs.
30 June 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – The tied is high

Events in the Middle East continue to influence economic policy, with central banks revisiting future rate moves as the oil price returns to pre-conflict levels.
24 June 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – What’s new pussycat?

Larry the long-serving 10 Downing Street cat is set to welcome yet another UK prime minister, the seventh in a decade. Elsewhere, there was a repricing of interest rate risk on hawkish noises from central banks.
7 July 2026

From pitch to portfolios: A shrinking margin of error

Like knockout football, today’s markets reward preparation and balance. With less margin for error, diversified portfolios help investors compete.
6 July 2026

Anthony Willis

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Market Perspectives: Playing for time

After an intense first half, financial markets appear to be entering a more measured phase.
6 July 2026

Luke Casey

Senior Client Portfolio Manager, Head of Client Strategy

Pyrspectives - Is it a bubble?

Explore Pyrford's Q2 2026 market outlook, analysing the AI investment boom, hyperscaler capex, AI monetisation trends, data centre constraints, US dollar strength, inflation risks and global economic developments.

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Source for all data and information is Bloomberg as at 6.7.2026, unless otherwise stated. For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © 2026 Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

Icon checked

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre​ to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.