- Central bankers have been pushing back on expectations around early interest rate cuts. But what about longer-term?
- US inflation should continue to fall over the coming months and slowing wage inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to declare victory and cut rates heavily over the next 12-months.
- Europe’s economic backdrop remains uncertain, and the European Central Bank will wait for data to support a discussion on cutting rates. Here, we are likely looking at mid-year.
- With a looming rise in the minimum wage and an upcoming pre-Election Budget, the Bank of England looks set to adopt a wait and see approach and will likely be one of the last to cut rates.