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Interest cuts to start in June

Key Takeaways

  • Financial markets have firmly decided that the ECB and the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June.
  • The Bank of England is seen as a laggard. However, even here the odds are 50:50 for a June cut.
  • The UK, Europe and US all have low unemployment and headline inflation is set to fall close to target.
  • Wage inflation is too high and a problem for all, however.
  • Longer term, short-term rates should settle below the consensus and below market pricing for all three.
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11 March 2024
Steven Bell
Steven Bell
Chief Economist, EMEA
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Interest cuts to start in June

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