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Insights

2024 Global Real Estate Outlook

What does 2024 hold for real estate? Financial conditions and global megatrends (demographics, digitisation, deglobalisation and decarbonisation) will continue to influence return potential and sector allocation, affecting different regions in different ways. Both macro and micro lenses are necessary to take advantage of market dislocation and uncover those opportunities that could deliver strong returns.

As 2024 unfolds, while there are still several unanswered questions, there seems to be a more balanced investor sentiment emerging as some of the haze of the past twelve months begins to lift. The path ahead is not without its challenges, and it will change as the seasons do, but we do anticipate a more stable economic setting which will feed into a more manageable financial environment, helping to support investor decisions and spur transactional activity on.

Key takeaways

  • A more stable macroeconomic environment should help provide additional clarity to investment decisions. Financial conditions are anticipated to remain tight heading into 2024 but should begin to loosen in the second half of the year.
  • Global megatrends – demographics, digitisation, deglobalisation and decarbonisation – will continue to influence return potential and sector allocation, affecting different regions in different ways. Assets must retain functional relevance to justify a place in investment portfolios – themes we will return to throughout this year.
  • Demographic changes – an aging population, along with a younger population that will be more technologically enabled, more physically mobile and more sustainably motivated, will direct the future of the real estate across multiple sectors.
  • These structural tailwinds favour some sectors, and we favour allocations to logistics, select parts of the retail market and residential.
  • We anticipate further asset repricing in some regional and sectors will present at attractive buying opportunity for investors brave enough to transact in an environment which does not yet offer full transparency.
  • Targeted acquisitions are crucial, considering geography, quality and sector at both the macro and micro level to take advantage of the dislocation in the market. Decisions should be guided by long-term trends supporting overarching sector choices but pay attention to the differences and opportunities within, and between sectors, subsectors, cities and submarkets will be crucial too. Stock selection remains an important skill set to monetise structural trends.
15 February 2024
Joanna Tano
Joanna Tano
Head of Research, Europe, Real Estate (EMEA)
Hans Nordby
Head of Research & Analytics, Real Estate (US), Lionstone Investments
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2024 Global Real Estate Outlook

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes only.

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)
No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

Along with Columbia Threadneedle’s in-house Research and Lionstone Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including, but not exclusively, Oxford Economics, Property Market Analysis, MSCI (www.msci.com/notice-and-disclaimer), Moody’s, CoStar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

 

In relation to data and information sourced from or provided by Property Market Analysis LLP, nothing herein expressed or implied is intended or shall be construed to confer upon or give to any person any rights or remedies under or by reason of this document. No third party is entitled to rely on any of the statements and/or information contained in this document, and no entity referred to herein assumes any liability to any third party because of any reliance on the statements and/or information contained in this document.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes only.

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)
No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

Along with Columbia Threadneedle’s in-house Research and Lionstone Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including, but not exclusively, Oxford Economics, Property Market Analysis, MSCI (www.msci.com/notice-and-disclaimer), Moody’s, CoStar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

 

In relation to data and information sourced from or provided by Property Market Analysis LLP, nothing herein expressed or implied is intended or shall be construed to confer upon or give to any person any rights or remedies under or by reason of this document. No third party is entitled to rely on any of the statements and/or information contained in this document, and no entity referred to herein assumes any liability to any third party because of any reliance on the statements and/or information contained in this document.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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