en-GB

gb_intm_classes

featured_gb_intm

intm

Intermediary

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients).

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Anthony Willis

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Key Takeaways

US military actions to remove Venezuelan President Maduro came as a surprise over the weekend.
Beyond some marginal moves in ‘safer assets’ there has been little response from markets. The oil price has moved lower.
The US is clearly keen to be heavily involved in Venezuelan oil, but it will be some time before the country’s vast reserves hit global markets.
Recent actions further underline a shift away from political norms of the past 70 years.
Despite geopolitical uncertainty the outlook for markets remains positive with supportive fundamentals and global growth resilient.

Transcript

Welcome to the first market perspectives of 2026. Today we focus on geopolitics and US actions in removing Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend. The move came as something of a surprise even though we have seen a military build-up over the past few months and witnessed the US attacking alleged drug shipments from Venezuela destined to the States. Few people expected the speed and scope of the move that we saw over the weekend, but the actions were obviously a long time in planning. What comes next remains to be seen.

From a financial markets point of view all is seemingly well. We have seen slight moves at the margin in terms of flights to safety – the US dollar, the Swiss franc and gold. The oil price has moved lower and of course that trend is significant. Venezuela holds 18% of global oil reserves but only makes up around 0.8% of world supply (most of their exports going to China) so there is no significant disruption expected. However, if exports were unlocked and Venezuelan oil flows into global markets it could prove to be a significant trend – albeit one that will take time. Clearly President Trump is keen for US companies to facilitate the trend but this this is going to take several years.

When we have geopolitical shocks, markets do tend to initially sell off before fundamentals quickly reassert themselves. I think this move from the US Administration’s point of view could be beneficial – midterm elections are looming, and lower oil prices and interest rates will be helpful from a votes point of view.

From a geopolitical viewpoint the weekend’s events further highlight increasing polarisation among the political superpowers with each increasingly willing to take actions that show little regard for international law or the norms of the past 70 years. Authority from international bodies such as the United Nations is being bypassed completely and it is interesting that the US government has chosen to also bypass their own Congress. For now, the powers of Congress in the US remain diminished though that may well change after the midterm elections. The geopolitical shifts serve as a reminder for European leaders that there is a need for unity and to ramp up their own defence spending at a time when the old-world order post-World War 2 of ‘Pax Americana’ is coming to an end.

I think we need to be positive from a markets point of view and notwithstanding ongoing geopolitical uncertainty the outlook remains upbeat – global growth is resilient and fiscal stimulus to extend the cycle across the US, Europe and Japan is either in place or being put into place. Monetary policy is still supportive given we expect more rate cuts across the US and the UK over the coming months. In Japan the narrative is anchored around further hikes being implemented in a slow and steady manner. Against the backdrop of solid earnings growth, we still see lots of questions out there around tariffs, AI and elevated valuations but we need to remember that fundamentals are still supportive and the global economic outlook for 2026 is relatively upbeat. On balance there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic right now.

5 January 2026

2026年 January 05日

Key topics

Subscribe to insights

Get the most out of your email by tailoring the types of insights and information you would like to receive from us.

Latest articles

5 Jan 2026

2026年 January 05日

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Welcome to the first market perspectives of 2026. Today we focus on geopolitics and US actions in removing Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend.

15 Dec 2025

2025年 December 15日

Weekly Perspectives: Looking forward to 2026

This week we take a closer look at Japan and the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the end of December.

8 Dec 2025

2025年 December 08日

Weekly Perspectives: What happens when Japan hikes rates?

This week we take a closer look at Japan and the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the end of December.

Key topics

Risk Disclaimer

The value of investments and any income derived from them can go down as well as up as a result of market or currency movements and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Views and opinions expressed by individual authors do not necessarily represent those of Columbia Threadneedle.

Important information

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

For professional investors only.

This financial promotion is issued for marketing and information purposes only by Columbia Threadneedle Investments in the UK.

The Fund is a sub fund of Columbia Threadneedle (UK) ICVC III, an open ended investment company (OEIC), registered in the UK and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

English language copies of the Fund’s Prospectus, summarised investor rights, English language copies of the key investor information document (KIID) can be obtained from Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AG, email: [email protected] or electronically at www.columbiathreadneedle.com. Please read the Prospectus before taking any investment decision.

The information provided in the marketing material does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in the Funds. The manager has the right to terminate the arrangements made for marketing.

Financial promotions are issued for marketing and information purposes; in the United Kingdom by Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in the EEA by Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., which is regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM); in Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

*Mandatory fields

Something went wrong, please try again

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Visit preference centre

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

Visit preference centre

CT Property Trust- Fund Manager Update

Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Key Takeaways

Subscribe to insights

Latest articles

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Weekly Perspectives: Looking forward to 2026

Weekly Perspectives: What happens when Japan hikes rates?

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Explore our CT Universal MAP ranges

Portfolio insights

Resources and support

Risk Disclaimer

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

CT Property Trust- Fund Manager Update

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Key Takeaways

Subscribe to insights

Latest articles

Weekly Perspectives: Will the latest geopolitical shock derail markets?

Weekly Perspectives: Looking forward to 2026

Weekly Perspectives: What happens when Japan hikes rates?

Sign up to receive insights, information and reporting

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre​ to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

Explore our CT Universal MAP ranges

Portfolio insights

Resources and support

Risk Disclaimer

Please confirm a few details about yourself to visit your preference centre

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.

To view and control which insights you receive from us by email, please visit your preference centre.

CT Property Trust- Fund Manager Update

Thank you. You can now visit your preference centre to choose which insights you would like to receive by email.