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Four factors are likely to have an important bearing on financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2026: US politics, fiscal policy in the UK and France, developments involving Iran, and the corporate earnings outlook.

Disruption fears look overdone – trusted data, regulation and embedded workflows should continue to support resilient information services credits.

The spread between French and German government debt has once again breached 100bps, reflecting a confluence of French fiscal and political pressures.

After a series of policy meetings across the major central banks, the direction of travel for interest rates remains finely balanced.

AI hyperscalers are reshaping the IG credit market, creating attractive dislocations in fundamentally strong issuers – and an attractive entry point.

Europe’s LDI landscape is being shaped by weaker growth, persistent inflation pressures and rising debt issuance, with political uncertainty in France and Italy adding further pressure to long-term yields.

With average interest rates of 14.7% over the past four millennia, and 4.7% over the past 400 years, the real anomaly was the zero-rate period of the 2000s.

Central bank policy is back at the forefront of investor attention as inflation data challenges expectations of an imminent easing cycle.

Although global growth expectations fell after the Iran conflict started, US growth expectations have crept up.