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With average interest rates of 14.7% over the past four millennia, and 4.7% over the past 400 years, the real anomaly was the zero-rate period of the 2000s.

Central bank policy is back at the forefront of investor attention as inflation data challenges expectations of an imminent easing cycle.

Although global growth expectations fell after the Iran conflict started, US growth expectations have crept up.

In From Monopoly to Age of Empires , we described a world fragmenting into competing technological and economic blocs. Technology, we argued, would not end scarcity.

The global economy has proved more resilient than many expected, but the investment landscape of 2027 looks materially different from a year ago – shaped by conflict in the Middle East, a reversal in interest rate expectations, and an AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) boom of unprecedented scale.

China's bond market appears remarkably strong, but the real story lies under the surface.

Central banks are back in focus as investors enter a busy run of September policy meetings. The European Central Bank meets this week, followed by the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next week.