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Insights

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – Pump it up (when you don’t really need it)

Rising petrol prices will eventually feed into higher inflation, which is being reflected in the pricing of government bonds. Inconsistent messaging from the US and Iran around potential peace talks is further unsettling financial markets. Read on for a breakdown of fixed income news across sectors and regions.

Macro/government bonds

Both US and eurozone 10-year yields rose around 5bps over the course of the week, with war related headlines dictated price action. US president, Donald Trump, began the week with a 48- hour deadline before he would bomb Iranian energy infrastructure. This gave way to a five-day pause on Monday, which was later changed to a 10-day pause on Thursday.

The market reaction to the five-day pause was to rally. However, inconsistent messaging from both the US and Iran on the status of peace talks saw the market became less inclined to take what Trump says at face value. This was reflected in a steady creep higher in bond yields during the remainder of the week.

Further complicating factors have been the arrival of US troops in the Middle East, the launch of missiles by the Houthis against Israel, and speculation that the seizure of Kharg island (from where the majority if Iran oil exports are transported) may be the next US plan.

With events likely to be drawn out before any settlement emerges, and oil trading close to $115 a barrel, market participants focused on the downside impact to global growth. PMI survey data pointed to an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation across the global
economy.

Over the weekend, Japan’s currency chief, Atsushi Mimura, warned that they would take action to support the yen after it breached 160 against the dollar. The jawboning was successful in preventing further yen weakness.

Portfolio activity Last week we exited a small long in the UK, which brought duration back to neutral across portfolios.

Interested in learning more?

Download the latest edition of ‘In Credit’ for the usual top-to-bottom lowdown including Markets a glance, Chart of the week, and credit sector breakdowns including investment grade, high yield and emerging markets.

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Aktuelle Beiträge

Rising petrol prices will eventually feed into higher inflation, which is being reflected in the pricing of government bonds.
EM spreads are holding up well as energy route disruption from the Iran war continues, but differentiation is occurring across sovereign credits as investors reassess future risk.
Today we look at the potential upside – and even downside – risks to the oil price and other commodities from the Iran war and where they might go from here.
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Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Source for all data and information is Bloomberg as at 16.3.2026, unless otherwise stated. For marketing purposes.

 

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

 

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

 

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

 

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © 2026 Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

Verwandte Beiträge

24 März 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – The curve that got away

The EUR swap curve is telling a fascinating story amid the Iran conflict.
17 März 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – I won’t back down: stalemate in Strait of Hormuz

There seems to be no easy way out of the Iran war, as the ongoing closure of the crucial seaway continues to impact prices and economies around the world. Read on for a breakdown of fixed income news across sectors and regions.
10 März 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – Smoke on the water

The market continues to trade on the potential macro consequences of events in the Middle East, with the threat of Iranian attacks effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp spike in oil prices.
30 März 2026

What five weeks of conflict mean for emerging market debt

EM spreads are holding up well as energy route disruption from the Iran war continues, but differentiation is occurring across sovereign credits as investors reassess future risk.
30 März 2026

Anthony Willis

Senior Economist, Multi-Asset Solutions team

Market Perspectives: Where next for commodity prices?

Today we look at the potential upside – and even downside – risks to the oil price and other commodities from the Iran war and where they might go from here.
24 März 2026

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – The curve that got away

The EUR swap curve is telling a fascinating story amid the Iran conflict.

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Source for all data and information is Bloomberg as at 16.3.2026, unless otherwise stated. For marketing purposes.

 

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

 

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

 

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

 

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © 2026 Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

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